Japan Faces Historic Population Decline Amid Aging Crisis and Falling Birth Rates

Hadisur Rahman, JadeTimes Staff

H. Rahman is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Asia

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Image Source: Toshiro Kubo/he Yomiuri Shimbun/AP/File

Japan is confronting a demographic crisis of historic proportions, with its population shrinking by more than 900,000 people in 2024 the largest annual drop on record according to new government data released this week.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported that the number of Japanese nationals fell by 908,574 last year, reducing the country’s population to approximately 120 million. This marks the 16th consecutive year of population decline, a trend fueled by a persistently low fertility rate, a rapidly aging population, and limited immigration.

Japan’s population peaked in 2009 at 126.6 million. Since then, it has steadily declined, reflecting deep-seated social and economic issues from the high cost of living and stagnant wages to gender norms that discourage family formation and parenting among younger generations.

The 2024 data highlights a growing imbalance between births and deaths. Only 687,689 babies were born the lowest since records began in 1968 while nearly 1.6 million people died, the highest figure ever recorded. This results in a natural population decrease of over 900,000, a figure that overshadows gains made through immigration.

Currently, nearly 30% of Japan’s population is aged 65 or older, while the working-age demographic (15–64 years) comprises just 59%, well below the global average of 65%, according to the OECD. This demographic imbalance is straining Japan’s pension system, healthcare services, and overall social infrastructure.

The Japanese government has spent more than a decade implementing various measures to counter the demographic downturn. These include childbirth incentives, housing subsidies, and promoting paternity leave to encourage gender equality in child-rearing. However, the measures have yielded minimal results in reversing the trend.

Despite the government's push, societal expectations around gender roles remain rigid. Women continue to shoulder most domestic and caregiving responsibilities, and single parenthood remains relatively rare. Experts argue that without deeper cultural shifts, financial incentives alone may not be sufficient to boost the birth rate.

One potential lever to slow the population decline is immigration historically a sensitive and controversial issue in Japan, which has long viewed itself as an ethnically homogenous nation. Foreign residents and individuals of mixed ethnicity have often faced social discrimination and institutional hurdles.

Nonetheless, the government has begun to soften its stance. New initiatives, including a digital nomad visa and skill-based migration programs, signal a shift in immigration policy. These efforts appear to be gaining traction: the number of foreign residents in Japan increased by over 10% in 2024, reaching a record 3.6 million.

Revised government projections from 2023 suggest Japan’s population could fall by 30% by 2070. However, the same models indicate the rate of decline may slow due to increased international migration.

Demographers emphasize that even a sudden and significant increase in fertility would not reverse the current trajectory in the short term. The population will continue to decline for several decades until a new generational balance is established.

As Japan grapples with the dual pressures of a shrinking workforce and an expanding elderly population, the country’s experience serves as a cautionary tale for other aging societies worldwide including neighboring South Korea and China facing similar demographic headwinds.