Can Renewable Energy End Energy Wars? A Global Perspective

Khoshnaw Rahmani, JadeTimes Staff

K. Rahmani is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Geopolitics.

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Image Source: Delil Souleiman

Introduction

Energy has long been a double-edged sword—fueling global prosperity while also inciting geopolitical conflict. For decades, fossil fuels like oil, coal, and natural gas have not only powered economies but have also been strategically weaponized to shape international relations. Today, as the climate crisis intensifies, the world is witnessing an unprecedented shift toward renewable energy. Solar, wind, geothermal, and hydrogen are stepping into the spotlight, promising to reshape power structures and potentially diminish the role of energy in fueling conflicts. Could this transformative energy transition finally end the era of energy wars? This article examines the historical links between energy and conflict, explores the role of fossil fuels in global power dynamics, and evaluates whether renewable energy can usher in a more peaceful, decentralized energy future.

The Historical Connection Between Energy and War

Energy resources have been at the heart of geopolitical strife for centuries:

• Colonial Resource Conflicts: During colonial times, European powers vied for control over coal and, later, oil to fuel their industrial ambitions. Competition for these resources often led to territorial conflicts and imperial rivalries.

• World War II and Resource Scarcity: Energy shortages played a pivotal role during World War II. For example, Nazi Germany’s limited oil supplies forced it to make strategic military decisions, influencing the broader conduct of the war.

• The Cold War Era and OPEC: The 1970s oil crises, particularly the OPEC oil embargo, demonstrated how fossil fuels could be used as a potent geopolitical weapon. Oil-rich states in the Middle East exerted significant influence over global markets, and energy supply was manipulated as a tool of economic pressure.

• Recent Conflicts: In recent decades, disputes such as the Russia–Ukraine gas conflicts and power struggles in the Persian Gulf underscore the fact that even today, fossil fuels remain intertwined with global conflict. Economic sanctions, production cuts, and control over energy choke points have become common strategic tools.

Fossil Fuels as Instruments of Global Power

Fossil fuels have not only driven industrial growth but also served as instruments of geopolitical control:

• Monopolization of Supply: Nations like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela have leveraged their abundant fossil fuel reserves to secure international political leverage. By manipulating supplies and prices, these countries have historically swayed global markets and influenced diplomatic relations.

• Strategic Choke Points: Vital infrastructural hubs—such as the Strait of Hormuz and major pipelines—are critical to the global fossil fuel supply chain. Control over these choke points has consistently provided leverage to resource-rich states.

• Economic Weaponization: Beyond physical control, fossil fuels have been used as economic weapons. For instance, production cuts and sanctions have far-reaching effects on global economies, exacerbating tensions and sometimes triggering conflicts.

While fossil fuels have long been the cornerstone of global energy security, a recent analysis from Our World in Data confirms that fossil fuels still account for more than 80% of primary energy consumption worldwide. This heavy dependence underscores the potential of energy resources to drive conflict as well as economic growth.

The Rise of Renewables: A New Geopolitical Game-Changer

The renewable energy revolution promises not just a sustainable future but a fundamental reordering of global power structures:

• Record Growth in Renewable Capacity: According to IRENA’s "Renewable Capacity Statistics 2025" report, 2024 witnessed the largest-ever increase in renewable energy capacity—with an addition of 585 gigawatts (GW), a 15% growth over the previous year, accounting for 92.5% of global power additions. Such data underline the rapid pace at which renewables are now being deployed.

• Decentralization and Local Empowerment: Unlike fossil fuels, renewable energy systems are highly modular and scalable. Rooftop solar panels, community wind farms, and localized energy storage enable countries and communities to produce energy locally, reducing reliance on centralized, geopolitically vulnerable supply chains.

• Cost Competitiveness: The cost of solar photovoltaic, wind, and battery storage technologies has plummeted over recent years. With renewables increasingly economically competitive against fossil fuels, nations are investing heavily in clean energy infrastructure—a trend backed by analyses from both IRENA and McKinsey.

• Global Shifts in Energy Demand: The IEA's Global Energy Review 2025 reports that global energy demand grew by 2.2% in 2024, led by a 4.3% surge in electricity consumption. Renewables contributed 38% of this growth in supply, highlighting their growing role in meeting the world’s energy needs.

Economic and Geopolitical Implications of the Renewable Transition

The shift to renewable energy is poised to reshape international relations and economic alliances:

• Shifting Alliances and New Power Players: As renewables decentralize and diversify energy supply, nations that historically dominated fossil fuel markets may see their geopolitical clout wane. Conversely, countries with abundant renewable resources – particularly those with high solar irradiance or strong wind corridors – are emerging as new power players.

• Reduction in Conflict Potential: The decentralized, modular nature of renewables could reduce the strategic vulnerabilities that have traditionally sparked energy conflicts. However, a new form of competition could arise over critical materials for renewable technologies (such as lithium and cobalt), which remain concentrated in specific regions of the world.

• Hybrid Energy Systems and New Vulnerabilities: As nations integrate renewable energy into existing grids, hybrid systems that rely on both conventional and renewable sources may create a transitional phase of vulnerability. Cybersecurity risks and regulatory challenges in managing complex, digitized grids are emerging as new areas of concern.

• Economic Forecasts: Various forecasts suggest that under aggressive renewable investment, global dependency on fossil fuels could drop by over 60% in the coming decades. This profound shift could lead to greater price stability and reduced incidences of supply-driven economic shocks.

Expert Opinions and Future Predictions

Leading energy experts offer nuanced views on the potential of renewables to reshape global conflict landscape:

• Energy Security Specialists: Analysts at IRENA and the IEA believe that a successful transition to communally produced renewables will lower the risk of resource-driven conflicts. Yet, they caution that the new energy structure must be managed carefully to mitigate emerging risks associated with critical material supply chains and digital infrastructure.

• Economic Analyses: According to reports by McKinsey and the Global Energy Outlook 2025, increased investments in renewable energy could fundamentally alter international trade, diminish the political influence of fossil fuel-rich nations, and drive global economic growth through technological innovation.

• Geopolitical Nuance: While the promise of renewables is immense, experts warn that energy will remain a potent factor in international relations. The new challenges—ranging from raw material dependency to cybersecurity threats—could spark fresh forms of geopolitical rivalry in a post-fossil fuel era.

Conclusion: A New Era or New Rivalries?

The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is more than just a change in technology—it represents a fundamental shift in global power structures. The decentralization, cost competitiveness, and rapid expansion of renewables suggest that in the long run, energy conflicts driven by fossil fuel dependency may diminish. Yet, new challenges loom on the horizon: control over critical resources for renewable technology, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and the geopolitical realignment of power.

Ultimately, whether renewable energy will end traditional energy wars or simply give rise to a new form of geopolitical rivalry depends on policy decisions, international cooperation, and the collective ability of nations to embrace and manage this transformation. The future of global energy is not set in stone—it is being written as we speak by the choices we make today.

For further reading, consult IRENA’s Renewable Capacity Statistics 2025, the IEA Global Energy Review 2025, and reports from Our World in Data. These sources provide additional data-driven insights that help illuminate the development and transformative potential of renewable energy in shaping a more peaceful global landscape.