Portugal’s Political Shift: The Rise of the Far-Right and Its Impact on European Democracy
- Rahmani Khoshnaw
- Jun 14
- 7 min read
Khoshnaw Rahmani, JadeTimes Staff
K. Rahmani is a Jadetimes news reporter covering politics.
A Historic Turning Point in Portuguese Politics
On May 18, 2025, Portugal held a landmark general election that redefined the nation’s political landscape. In a fiercely contested race marked by widespread voter disillusionment with the established political order, the far-right Chega (CH) party surged to 22.8% of the vote, winning 60 parliamentary seats and emerging as the second-largest force in the 230-member Assembly of the Republic. Meanwhile, the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, obtained 31.8% of the vote and 91 seats. The long-dominant Socialist Party (PS) suffered a dramatic decline, capturing only 22.8% of the vote and 58 seats. With no party achieving an outright majority, Portugal faces an era defined by coalition negotiations, shifting alliances, and a broader reckoning with the future of democracy—not only for Portugal but within the context of European politics as a whole.
Detailed Breakdown of the 2025 Election Results
Election Results and Key Statistics
Party Leader Seats Won Vote Share Seat Change
Democratic Alliance Luís Montenegro 91 31.8% +11
(AD)
Chega (CH) André Ventura 60 22.8% +10
Socialist Party (PS) Pedro Nuno Santos 58 22.8% –20
Liberal Initiative (IL) Rui Rocha 9 5.4% +1
LIVRE Rui Tavares. 6 4.1% +2
Unitary Democratic Paulo Raimundo. 3 2.9%
Coalition (CDU)
Left Bloc (BE) Mariana Mortágua. 1 –4
People-Animals. Inês Sousa Real 1 1.4% 0
-Nature (PAN)
Together for the. Élvio Sousa. 1 0.3% +1
People (JPP)
With a turnout around 58.3%, this election is marked by a high level of voter engagement. The electorate’s decisiveness—reflected in both the breakthrough of far-right forces and the dramatic decline of historically trusted parties—signals a shift in the political ethos that demands deeper exploration.
An Exhaustive History of Portugal’s Electoral Process
From Revolution to the Modern Ballot: A Complete History
The Seeds of Democracy (1974–1975): The Carnation Revolution on April 25, 1974, dismantled nearly five decades of Estado Novo authoritarian rule. The first democratic elections in 1975 were chaotic yet hopeful, setting up a pluralistic system with a multitude of political voices. Early elections featured strong participation from newly liberated factions, including the Socialist Party (PS) and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), whose platforms aimed to consolidate the revolutionary gains.
Consolidation and European Integration (Late 1970s–1980s): As democracy stabilized, the 1976 and subsequent elections reflected ideological debates over how to rebuild a war-torn nation. Portugal’s accession to the European Economic Community in 1986 catalyzed significant political restructuring. Leaders like Mário Soares emerged as key figures during this period, championing European integration and economic modernization through a series of critical electoral contests.
The Rise of Modern Political Icons (1990s–Early 2000s): The 1990s saw the Socialist Party under António Guterres and later José Sócrates dominating the political stage. This era witnessed progressive reforms in social policies, education, and healthcare. The political system became more stable even as coalition governments occasionally emerged, reflecting the fragmented nature of regional politics and the evolving electorate.
Coalition Governments and Economic Challenges (2011–2024): Post-crisis, coalition governments became a hallmark of Portuguese politics. Under Prime Minister António Costa’s leadership, Portugal managed economic recovery after the global financial crisis and navigated the societal challenges presented by austerity and later, the COVID-19 pandemic. Elections during this period were characterized by pragmatic alliances and a focus on fiscal discipline paired with progressive social policies.
Emergence of the Far-Right (2024–2025): In a dramatic political turnaround, the 2025 elections witnessed the rise of Chega—a far-right party harnessing populist rhetoric, anti-establishment sentiment, and nationalist themes. The decline of the Socialist Party, coupled with the sustained strength of centre-right AD, signaled a broader shift in political values. This shift is now prompting calls for a re-examination of traditional alliances and the future role of European integration in domestic policies.
Timeline: Milestones in Portuguese Electoral History
1974 – Carnation Revolution: The mass uprising that ended dictatorship initiated the transition to democracy.
1975 – First Free Elections: Laid the foundational democratic framework, introducing a multi-party system.
1986 – EU Membership: Accession to the European Economic Community prompted economic reforms and political modernization.
1995–2011 – Socialist Dominance: Under leaders like António Guterres and José Sócrates, progressive reforms and European integration shaped national policy.
2011–2024 – Coalition Era: Navigating economic recovery and global crises, coalition governments stabilized the country while tackling austerity and social challenges.
2025 – Far-Right Breakthrough: Marked by the surge of Chega and fragmentation in the traditional party system, coinciding with significant societal shifts and a broader European trend towards populism.
In-Depth Profiles of Portugal’s Prominent Political Figures
Luís Montenegro – Head of the Democratic Alliance (AD)
Currently serving as Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro represents the centre-right political force determined to restore fiscal discipline and expand Portugal’s role in the EU. Known for his pragmatic approach, Montenegro’s leadership is characterized by a desire to forge moderate coalitions despite rising polarization. His policies aim to secure economic stability while preserving traditional values amid rapidly changing political dynamics.
André Ventura – Leader of Chega (CH)
André Ventura has emerged as the face of Portugal’s far-right resurgence. With populist rhetoric and a strong nationalist appeal, Ventura taps into voter frustrations over immigration, economic inequality, and cultural identity. His rapid rise has reshaped parliamentary debates, forcing established parties to confront issues that were once ignored. Ventura’s emphasis on sovereignty and a return to traditional Portuguese values resonates with a substantial portion of the electorate disillusioned by globalization.
Pedro Nuno Santos – Advocate of the Declining Socialist Party (PS)
Once the bastion of progressive policy in Portugal, the Socialist Party under Pedro Nuno Santos now grapples with internal divisions and declining support amid shifting voter priorities. Santos’s leadership is marked by calls for modernization and reform; however, the party’s struggle to adapt has fueled its dramatic loss in seats. His attempts to revitalize the party have been met with mixed reactions, reflecting the challenge of reconciling historical identity with contemporary demands.
Legacy Leaders: Mário Soares, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, and António Guterres
Mário Soares: Revered as the father of modern Portuguese democracy, Soares was instrumental in consolidating democratic institutions post-1974. His leadership and vision laid the groundwork for Portugal’s subsequent political evolution.
Aníbal Cavaco Silva: Serving as a key figure during Portugal’s integration into the European Economic Community, Cavaco Silva’s tenure is remembered for economic modernization and pragmatic governance.
António Guterres: Before ascending to international prominence as Secretary-General of the United Nations, Guterres played a crucial role in advancing progressive reforms domestically. His legacy continues to influence modern Portuguese political discourse and its engagement on the world stage.
Coalition Prospects: Scenarios for a Post-Election Future
With no single party commanding a majority, the formation of a viable coalition is inevitable. Consider the following potential scenarios:
Centre-Right Bloc Formation: Possibility: The Democratic Alliance (AD) might seek alliances with smaller right-leaning parties such as the Liberal Initiative (IL) and LIVRE to reach a majority. Challenges: Although this bloc could consolidate conservative support, incorporating Chega remains unlikely due to deep ideological divides—particularly concerning social policies and immigration—which would likely undermine the coalition’s stability.
Grand Coalition Scenario: Possibility: An unprecedented grand coalition could be formed by aligning moderate factions from both the centre-right (AD) and centre-left (PS), along with other moderate voices. Challenges: The ideological chasm between parties with historically divergent platforms makes this scenario fraught with potential compromises. Moreover, voter skepticism regarding such alliances could hinder the coalition’s legitimacy.
Minority Government with Ad Hoc Support: Possibility: AD might attempt to govern as a minority administration, establishing issue-based agreements with various smaller parties on a case-by-case basis to pass legislation. Challenges: This strategy risks frequent policy gridlock and may leave the government vulnerable to instability, with key votes subject to unpredictable support from other factions.
Each coalition scenario carries lasting implications for domestic policy, economic reforms, and Portugal’s stance within the European Union.
The European Context: Portugal in a Changing Continent
Portugal’s political transformation reflects broader themes sweeping across Europe:
Rise of Nationalism: Similar to trends observed in France (National Rally), Italy (Lega Nord), Germany (AfD), and Spain (Vox), Portugal’s far-right surge is part of a continent-wide pushback against globalization and liberal immigration policies. This nationalist fervor calls for a reexamination of traditional political alliances and policies.
Shifts in EU Relations: As established pro-EU parties lose support and nationalist sentiment rises, Portugal’s future policies on EU integration, financial regulations, and cross-border cooperation are under scrutiny. The nation’s new political configuration may drive a more skeptical approach toward supranational governance, influencing broader EU debates.
Economic and Social Implications: Far-right electoral gains across Europe have spurred discussions regarding protectionist economic policies, adjustments in social welfare programs, and the cultural challenges posed by immigration. Portugal’s electoral outcomes are both a reflection of and a catalyst for these continental shifts.
Future Political and Societal Scenarios
Short-Term Policy Adjustments
Immigration and Integration: Anticipated policy shifts may include stricter immigration controls, reflecting far-right priorities, while moderate elements might seek to balance security concerns with humanitarian commitments.
Economic Reforms: A new governing coalition is likely to reexamine economic strategies—a tension between fiscal conservatism and progressive social investment will be at the forefront of policy debates. Structural reforms may target taxation, public spending, and investment in key sectors.
Long-Term Political Implications
Transformation of the Party System: The 2025 electoral outcome could mark the beginning of a significant realignment in Portuguese politics, leading to a more fragmented yet representative legislature where traditional party loyalties continuously evolve.
Impact on EU Policy and Integration: As traditional centrist and progressive forces recalibrate, Portugal’s leadership may adopt a more cautious or even critical stance regarding EU mandates. Such a shift would resonate not only domestically but also across European institutions, potentially shaping forthcoming EU policies.
Societal Polarization: The pronounced polarization evident in the 2025 results portends increased societal divides—this may influence public discourse, reform initiatives, and future electoral cycles, compelling policymakers to address not only economic but also cultural and identity-based concerns.
Defining a New Era for Portugal and Europe
The 2025 Portuguese general elections represent an inflection point—a transformative juncture at which longstanding political traditions are challenged by emergent nationalistic and populist forces. The historic rise of Chega, coupled with the reconfigured standing of both the Socialist Party and the centre-right Democratic Alliance, signals deep societal and institutional shifts. Set against a backdrop of evolving European dynamics, these changes prompt both celebratory and cautionary assessments of democratic resilience.
As coalition negotiations progress and new political alliances emerge, the outcomes in Portugal will not only shape its domestic trajectory but also offer a window into the future of European democracy. The ensuing period promises intense negotiation, dynamic policy revisions, and a reimagining of both national identity and transnational cooperation, ensuring that Portugal’s political evolution remains a defining case study in modern history.
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