ASEAN Caught Between Superpowers in Fraught U.S. Tariff Talks

Hadisur Rahman, JadeTimes Staff

H. Rahman is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Asia

---

Image Source: Wikimedia Commons

As the clock ticks down on U.S. President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve, Southeast Asian nations find themselves in an increasingly precarious position, facing high-stakes negotiations with the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) while trying to avoid economic fallout and diplomatic tensions with China.

The ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is under mounting pressure to strike deals with Washington that would reduce harsh reciprocal tariffs. But sources across multiple ASEAN capitals describe the ongoing negotiations as lopsided and politically fraught, with the U.S. demanding major economic concessions in exchange for uncertain tariff relief all while China's shadow looms large over the talks.

Trump’s so-called “reciprocal tariffs” which currently range from 10% for Singapore to 49% for Cambodia are set to return in full next week unless bilateral deals are struck. While some ASEAN countries initially hoped that narrowing trade surpluses with the U.S. would suffice, the Trump administration has made clear it seeks much more: preferential access to Southeast Asian markets, tighter controls on Chinese goods rerouted through ASEAN, and symbolic demonstrations of alignment with American economic policy.

Vietnam, heavily reliant on trade with the U.S., has already signed a provisional agreement. The deal lowers U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods to 20%, down from a peak of 46%, but enforces a 40% tariff on goods suspected of transshipment from China. In return, Vietnam will allow tariff-free access for all U.S. imports. Still, this arrangement is seen as an expensive compromise that leaves Vietnam vulnerable on both economic and political fronts.

Other ASEAN members including Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines are still in talks with U.S. officials. Many have reportedly offered extensive “buy American” packages, including imports of agricultural products, aircraft, and energy resources, in an effort to reduce trade imbalances. Additionally, some countries have agreed to grant special treatment to U.S. investors and reduce regulatory barriers seen as obstructive to U.S. firms.

But these efforts risk straining relations with China, ASEAN’s largest trading partner by far. Beijing has subtly warned Southeast Asian governments not to compromise Chinese economic interests in their U.S. negotiations. “Negotiate the best deal you can with the U.S., but don’t harm China’s interests,” is reportedly the prevailing message from Chinese envoys, according to regional officials.

For ASEAN, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult. The region is now squarely caught in the middle of the broader U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry, with economic decisions increasingly entangled in political consequences.

ASEAN negotiators in Washington describe the process as chaotic and opaque. U.S. agencies including the USTR, the Department of Commerce, and the Treasury have presented varying and at times conflicting demands. Officials from several ASEAN states expressed confusion about which U.S. office truly has the authority to secure a final deal or how likely President Trump is to honor any agreement made at the staff level.

Adding to the discomfort is the tone from Washington. Trump’s recent comment that foreign governments are “kissing my ass” to avoid tariffs sparked outrage across ASEAN, undermining goodwill and fueling criticism at home for leaders seen as conceding too much to Washington without firm assurances.

The biggest concern among ASEAN nations is the lack of guarantees. Even those offering comprehensive concessions fear that tariff relief could be temporary or revoked at Trump’s discretion. This unpredictability, combined with rising domestic political backlash, has created a sense of unease throughout the region.

Despite the difficult road ahead, ASEAN remains committed to pursuing solutions that preserve its critical access to U.S. markets while avoiding economic retaliation from China. Whether this balancing act can be sustained remains uncertain and the next few weeks could be decisive for the region’s economic trajectory.