Frozen in Dispute: Western Sahara’s Struggle for Sovereignty in 2025

Khoshnaw Rahmani, Jadetimes Staff

K. Rahmani is a Jadetimes news reporter covering politics.

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Image Source: Zohra Bensemra

1. Introduction

Western Sahara stands as one of the most protracted and complex territorial disputes in the modern era. Claimed by Morocco and contested by the Algeria‐backed Polisario Front, the region remains in a state of neither war nor peace, challenging the capabilities of international law, UN mediation, and regional diplomacy. This article offers the most comprehensive analysis of Western Sahara’s geography, history, political contestation, and future prospects, providing readers with an authoritative resource that satisfies both scholarly rigor and SEO best practices.

2. Geography and Demographics of Western Sahara

Western Sahara occupies roughly 266,000 square kilometers on Africa’s northwest coast, bordered by Morocco to the north, Algeria to the northeast, Mauritania to the east and south, and the Atlantic Ocean to the west. The region’s landscape comprises arid plains, sand dunes, and phosphate-rich plateaus along the coast.

• Population: Approximately 600,000, including Sahrawi refugees in Tindouf camps and Moroccan settlers.

• Major Cities: Laayoune (El Aaiún), Dakhla, Smara.

• Economy: Phosphate mining, artisanal fishing, and nascent renewable energy projects.

Despite its sparse population, Western Sahara holds strategic importance due to its natural resources and Atlantic coastline.

3. Historical Background: From Pre-Colonial Times to the Present

3.1 Pre-Colonial Era

Prior to European colonization, the territory known today as Western Sahara was sparsely inhabited by nomadic Sahrawi tribes. These tribes operated under fluid allegiances, trading across the Sahara and along the Atlantic coast.

3.2 Spanish Colonization (1884–1975)

Spain declared a protectorate over the region in 1884, formalizing control over coastal towns and establishing administrative centers in Laayoune and Villa Cisneros (Dakhla). Spanish governance focused on resource extraction and minimal infrastructure, while Sahrawi tribes maintained significant autonomy.

3.3 Madrid Accords and the Green March (1975)

Facing domestic unrest and international pressure, Spain signed the Madrid Accords in November 1975, ceding administrative control of Western Sahara to Morocco and Mauritania without granting sovereignty to the Sahrawis. Immediately thereafter, King Hassan II organized the “Green March,” sending over 350,000 Moroccan civilians into the territory to assert Morocco’s claim.

3.4 Emergence of the Polisario Front and SADR (1973–1991)

Founded in 1973, the Polisario Front combined nationalist aspirations with socialist ideals, aiming to end colonial and foreign domination. In 1976, Polisario proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in Bir Lehlu, establishing a government-in-exile in Algeria. Mauritania withdrew its claim in 1979, leaving Morocco as the sole occupying power.

3.5 UN Ceasefire and MINURSO (1991–Present)

A UN-brokered ceasefire came into effect in 1991, creating MINURSO (United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara). Despite its mandate to organize a self-determination referendum, MINURSO has yet to deliver a vote, with both parties rejecting successive proposals and procedural deadlocks persisting into 2025.

4. The Moroccan Autonomy Plan and International Endorsement

In 2007, Morocco proposed an Autonomy Plan granting Western Sahara internal self-government under Moroccan sovereignty. Key features include:

• Locally elected legislative, executive, and judicial bodies

• Moroccan control of defense, foreign affairs, and religious affairs

• Transitional mechanisms for cultural and linguistic rights

By mid-2025, over 114 countries, including the United States, France, Spain, Germany, Portugal, and the United Kingdom, have publicly endorsed Morocco’s plan, describing it as the most “serious, credible, and pragmatic” solution to the stalemate.

5. The Polisario Front and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

The Polisario Front maintains that only full independence, via a UN-supervised referendum, can satisfy Sahrawi aspirations. In 2025:

• SADR is recognized by roughly 40 UN member states and is a full member of the African Union.

• The Polisario controls approximately 20% of the territory east of the Moroccan defensive berm.

• Tindouf refugee camps in Algeria shelter about 90,000 Sahrawis, where calls for leadership reform and transparency have increased.

Despite diplomatic hardships, the Polisario insists on legal adherence to UN resolutions and international law to legitimize Sahrawi self-determination.

6. UN Mediation, MINURSO, and Diplomatic Stalemates

MINURSO’s original mandate included monitoring the ceasefire and organizing the referendum. However, since 1991:

• Successive UN envoys, including Staffan de Mistura, have failed to bridge Moroccan and Polisario demands.

• A 2024 UN proposal to partition the territory was rejected by both sides

• Human rights monitors have been denied access west of the berm since 2015, raising serious concerns about arbitrary detention and suppression of dissent.

The UN Security Council remains divided, with the US, UK, and France backing Morocco, while Algeria and Russia vote against favorable resolutions for Rabat.

7. Regional Dynamics: Morocco vs. Algeria

The Western Sahara conflict is inseparable from the broader Morocco–Algeria rivalry:

• Algeria severed diplomatic ties in 2021, closed airspace and gas pipelines to Morocco, and increased military cooperation with Russia and Iran.

• Morocco deepened alliances with the US and Israel following the 2020 Abraham Accords, gaining diplomatic leverage.

• Both nations conduct frequent military exercises along their border, heightening the risk of accidental escalation.

These dynamics exacerbate North African instability and complicate EU and African Union efforts to mediate.

8. Human Rights, Resource Exploitation, and Economic Statecraft

Western Sahara’s phosphates, fisheries, and renewable energy potential have attracted multinational investment:

• Morocco exploits major phosphate deposits near Bou Craa, exporting via the Ras Nouadhibou terminal.

• Fisheries off the Atlantic coast are leased to EU and Chinese companies under contested agreements.

• Renewable energy projects—particularly green hydrogen plants—have surged, often without Sahrawi consultation, prompting legal challenges at the European Court of Justice, which annulled EU-Morocco trade deals lacking Sahrawi consent.

UN human rights experts continue to document Sahrawi reports of forced evictions, home demolitions, and torture linked to resource‐related projects.

9. Comparative Analysis: Other High-Profile Territorial Disputes

Territory	Status	Recognition	UN Involvement
Western Sahara	Non-self-governing	SADR recognized by ~40 states	MINURSO mission since 1991
Palestine	Occupied territories	Recognized by 138 states	UNRWA, Special Coordinator
Kashmir	Disputed territory	Partitions by India, Pakistan	No direct UN mission
Crimea	Annexed by Russia (2014)	Disputed, not recognized by most	UN General Assembly resolutions
Kashmir	Disputed between India & Pakistan	No UN-supervised referendum	UN Military Observer Group
Kosovo	Partially recognized independent state	Recognized by 100+ UN members; opposed by Serbia	No UN peacekeeping mission; EU Rule of Law Mission
Somaliland	Self-declared independent republic	No UN members recognize it	No UN involvement
Rojhilat (Eastern Kurdistan)	Stateless cultural-geographic region within Iran	Treated as part of Islamic Republic of Iran	No dedicated UN mission; periodic human-rights monitoring

This comparative lens underscores shared challenges: stalled referenda, great-power politics, and resource tensions.

10. Timeline of Key Events

Year	Event
1884	Spain declares protectorate over Western Sahara
1973	Polisario Front founded
1975	Madrid Accords; Green March
1976	SADR proclaimed; Mauritania and Morocco divide territory
1979	Mauritania withdraws; Morocco annexes southern zone
1991	UN ceasefire; MINURSO established
2007	Morocco unveils Autonomy Plan
2020	US recognizes Moroccan sovereignty
2021	Algeria severs ties with Morocco
2023	France and UK endorse Moroccan Autonomy Plan
2024	Proposed UN partition plan rejected by both parties
2025	Portugal, Gambia, and others join supporters of Morocco’s plan

11. Future Prospects and Possible Scenarios

Analysts identify three broad scenarios for Western Sahara’s future:

1. Autonomy Implementation: Morocco rolls out phased autonomy reforms, with UN oversight, but Polisario and Algeria remain skeptical.

2. Renewed Hostilities: Polisario resumes military actions, provoking regional arms races and humanitarian crises.

3. International Legal Resolution: Sahrawi groups pursue cases at the International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court, compelling a legal pathway to referendum or independence.

Each path hinges on shifts in international will, resource geopolitics, and the balance of power between Morocco and Algeria.

12. Conclusion

Western Sahara’s frozen conflict exemplifies the enduring complexities of post-colonial sovereignty, great-power rivalries, and contested resource governance. While Morocco’s Autonomy Plan enjoys growing international support, genuine resolution demands inclusive dialogue, enforceable UN mandates, and robust human rights protections. As the UN’s 2026 mandate renewal approaches, the world will watch whether diplomatic innovation can break the deadlock or whether this Saharan stalemate continues to frustrate hopes for self-determination and regional stability.