Khoshnaw Rahmani, Jadetimes Staff

K. Rahmani is a Jadetimes news reporter covering politics.

Introduction: A Defining Moment for Dutch Democracy

On Wednesday, 29 October 2025, the Netherlands will hold a snap general election after the collapse of the Schoof cabinet earlier this year. Voters will choose all 150 members of the House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer), and no single party is expected to secure a majority, ensuring another round of coalition negotiations. This vote comes at a time of intense public debate over housing, climate policy, migration, digital governance, and the country’s role in Europe and beyond.

Quick News Overview

Dutch Interior Minister Judith Uitermark formally set 2025 Dutch General Election date following PVV’s  withdrawal from government in June 2025 over disputes on asylum policy. The decision allows parties nearly five months to campaign, register candidates, and prepare electoral logistics, including absentee ballots for overseas voters.

I. A Complete History of Dutch General Elections

1. Origins and Early Developments (1848–1917)

The first national elections under a constitutional monarchy took place in 1848, after the Netherlands adopted a new constitution emphasizing ministerial responsibility. Initially, voting rights were tied to property ownership, and candidates ran in single-member districts. Over time, suffrage expanded, culminating in universal male suffrage in 1917 and women gaining the vote in 1919.

2. Introduction of Proportional Representation (1917–1945)

In 1917, the Dutch switched to party-list proportional representation to balance party strength with regional interests. The system lowered the threshold for representation, enabling a proliferation of parties. By World War II, coalitions became the norm, as no party could command a majority. The war interrupted democratic practice, but elections resumed in 1946, laying the groundwork for postwar consensus politics.

3. The Era of Consensus and Pillarization (1945–1989)

The postwar period saw four dominant “pillar” parties—Catholic, Protestant, socialist, and liberal—each representing distinct social groups. Governments balanced interests through grand coalitions. From 1945 to 1994, major parties like the Catholic People’s Party (KVP), Anti-Revolutionary Party (ARP), Labour Party (PvdA), and VVD regularly formed broad-based cabinets, reinforcing stability but often at the cost of policy boldness.

4. Fragmentation and Populist Upheaval (1990–2023)

The 1990s brought the merger of Christian parties into the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the rise of new movements like Pim Fortuyn’s LPF in 2002, which shocked the establishment before collapsing amid scandal. More recently, Geert Wilders’s PVV surged in 2010 and became the largest party in 2023, reflecting growing voter concern over immigration and identity issues. This era has featured shorter-lived cabinets and repeated snap elections, underscoring the system’s volatility despite its proportional foundation.

II. The 2025 Election in Depth

1. Trigger and Background

In June 2025, the far-right PVV withdrew from the coalition over asylum policy disagreements, prompting Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s cabinet to resign. The snap vote was scheduled for 29 October to balance timely representation with ample preparation time for municipalities, parties, and expatriate voters.

2. Electoral System and Procedures

The Netherlands uses semi-open list proportional representation for its 150-seat Tweede Kamer. Seats are allocated via the D’Hondt method once a party surpasses the 0.67 percent Hare quota. Voters select a party list and can cast a preferential vote for individual candidates; those receiving at least 25 percent of the quota move ahead on their party list regardless of placement.

3. Key Dates and Timeline

• Jan–Feb 2025: Party manifestos released; NSC rises in polls.

• March 2025: Nationwide debates spotlight housing and climate.

• 3 June 2025: PVV exits coalition, triggering cabinet resignation.

• 6 June 2025: Interior Minister announces 29 October election date.

• July–Oct 2025: Campaign rallies, candidate debates, and policy unveilings.

• 29 October 2025: Voting day for all 12.8 million eligible Dutch voters.

• Oct–Dec 2025: Coalition negotiations under a royal informateur.

4. Major Parties and Lead Candidates

All 27 parties cleared by the Electoral Council are on the ballot, while five minor parties failed to meet deposit or signature requirements.

5. Polling and Projections

On the eve of the election, no single party exceeds 30 projected seats. Polls show strong rural support for BBB and PVV, urban youth leaning toward D66 and Volt, and a sizable undecided segment reflecting distrust in established parties. These patterns mirror post-2002 fragmentation but with even greater volatility among emerging movements.

III. Comparing 2025 to Previous Elections

• Voter Turnout: Historically between 75–85 percent, turnout may dip slightly as disillusioned PVV voters contemplate abstention, similar to trends after 2006’s electronic voting debacle.

• Party System: The 2025 contest features unprecedented coalition possibilities, with up to six parties needed to form a majority versus four in 2017.

• Policy Focus Shift: Earlier elections centered on economic recovery and EU integration; today’s campaign is dominated by housing shortages, climate crises, and digital regulation.

• Populist Influence: While Wilders’s PVV won 37 seats in 2023, its post-coalition standing hovers around 20–22 percent, revealing both its resilience and overextension in government.

IV. How Parties View Major Issues

1. Housing Crisis

• PVV proposes strict rent controls and prioritizing Dutch buyers.

• PvdA–GL alliance advocates massive public housing investment and rent subsidies.

• VVD and CDA back market-driven solutions with targeted tax breaks for first-time buyers.

• NSC emphasizes local government autonomy to manage zoning and planning.

2. Climate and Energy

• PvdA–GL, D66, Volt push accelerated net-zero targets, carbon pricing, and green jobs.

• BBB and PVV resist stringent agricultural emissions cuts, fearing rural economic harm.

• CDA seeks a balanced transition combining renewables with continued gas usage.

3. Migration and Asylum

• PVV demands immediate deportation of criminal foreigners and visa caps.

• NSC and D66 call for streamlined asylum processing and integration programs.

• PvdA–GL supports EU-wide burden sharing and humane reception conditions.

• CDA and CU emphasize family reunification with stricter eligibility vetting.

4. Digital Governance and EU Integration

• D66 and Volt champion EU digital regulation, data privacy, and AI ethics.

• VVD backs innovation incentives and partnership with U.S. tech firms.

• NSC seeks transparent algorithms in public services.

• PVV and FvD criticize EU centralization, advocating national digital sovereignty.

5. Foreign Policy and Defense

• PvdA–GL and D66 push stronger NATO commitments and support for Ukraine.

• VVD calls for balanced defense spending and closer transatlantic ties.

• PVV wants reduced EU defense obligations and more focus on Dutch borders.

• NSC and Volt envision a leading Dutch role in EU crisis management.

V. Expert Analysis and Implications

Political scientists warn that coalition talks may last months, as ideological divides on migration and climate complicate negotiations. A potential “green-red” bloc (PvdA–GL, D66, Volt) could pivot the Netherlands toward more ambitious sustainability policies, while a centrist VVD–NSC–CDA coalition would likely emphasize institutional reform and fiscal restraint. Populist parties, even if sidelined from government, could wield significant influence through confidence agreements.

The Road Ahead

The 29 October 2025 election is both a test of the Dutch proportional system’s durability and a referendum on competing visions for the country’s future. Whether voters prioritize consensus or choose to shake up the status quo, the outcome will reverberate across Europe, influencing debates on migration, climate action, and digital sovereignty. As the Netherlands embarks on yet another period of coalition craftsmanship, its model of negotiated governance remains a global touchstone for pluralistic democracy.