Modi’s Surprise China Visit Signals a Geopolitical Recalibration Amid Trump’s Tariff Storm

Hadisur Rahman, JadeTimes Staff

H. Rahman is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Asia

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Image Source: X Screengrab

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sudden visit to China for the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit marks a dramatic pivot in Asia’s power dynamics, as the leader of the world’s largest democracy responds defiantly to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

The move, Modi’s first trip to China in seven years, is widely seen as a calculated geopolitical gesture, signaling India’s potential shift in alliances amid mounting U.S. trade pressure. The tariff, imposed as part of Trump’s aggressive trade crackdown on BRICS nations, has triggered economic and political ripples across New Delhi, drawing sharp reactions from industry leaders and global analysts alike.

India becomes the second BRICS member after Brazil to face the full brunt of a 50% tariff wall, following Trump’s assertion that BRICS is aligning itself with “anti-American policies” and attempting to replace the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency.

South Africa was earlier hit with a 30% levy, while other African nations such as Nigeria, Ghana, and Zimbabwe faced 15%. Trump has also threatened a further 10% tariff hike on all BRICS countries, exacerbating global trade anxieties.

According to Nomura Holdings, the 50% tariff amounts to a “de facto trade embargo,” threatening India’s role as a key counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region. India’s annual exports to the U.S., valued at $87.4 billion in 2024, now face a deeply uncertain future.

Indian industries are already feeling the strain. Sectors like gems and jewellery, apparel, textiles, and specialty chemicals are particularly exposed, raising concerns over job losses and shrinking foreign revenue.

The Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council called the tariff a “deeply concerning development” with “far-reaching repercussions across India’s economy.” Billionaire Anand Mahindra of the Mahindra Group warned of “unintended consequences” and urged urgent reforms to make India more economically resilient.

Strategists like Rajat Agarwal at Société Générale highlighted the volatility of the Indian rupee and diminished investor confidence, while Morgan Stanley predicted a dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of India, including multiple rate cuts and possible fiscal stimulus measures.

Modi’s decision to attend the SCO summit in Beijing rather than seek a diplomatic thaw in Washington has sparked speculation of a potential recalibration of India’s strategic posture. For years, India has maintained a delicate balance collaborating with the West while engaging with China and Russia through BRICS and the SCO.

Yet the Trump administration’s hardline approach may be pushing New Delhi and Beijing into a closer embrace. According to political observers, Chinese President Xi Jinping now has a strong incentive to exploit this rift, potentially stalling any hopes of a U.S.-China “grand bargain” on trade.

“If Trump’s tariff strategy was intended to isolate China, it might ironically be accelerating BRICS cohesion,” says Sarah Tan, economist at Moody’s Analytics. “A shared grievance can be a powerful unifier.”

The broader backdrop is BRICS’ ongoing ambition to launch an alternative reserve currency and expand its influence in international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank. This goal had long been stalled by tensions between China and India tensions that now appear to be softening under external pressure.

As former allies recalibrate, analysts warn that Trump’s unilateralism could backfire, weakening U.S. influence in Asia and creating new space for China to lead a multipolar economic order.

As Modi prepares for his high stakes engagement in Beijing, India’s future economic and geopolitical trajectory appears to be at a critical inflection point. The tariff war may reshape not just trade flows, but long standing alliances redefining Asia’s balance of power and Washington’s role in it.