AI Drone Warfare Has Begun

Chethana Janith, Jadetimes Staff

C. Janith is a Jadetimes news reporter and sub-editor covering science and geopolitics.

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The drone warfare between Ukraine and Russia offers sobering lessons for those relying on legacy weapons systems, and the looming integration of AI will make the current situation look quaint. Against this background, the Western defense establishment increasingly appears to be dangerously behind the curve.

Ukrainian servicemen fly an unmanned aerial vehicle, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, February 2024. Image Source: (Stringer / Reuters)

Ukraine’s June 1 assault on airbases across Russia has already ushered in a new conventional wisdom: the expensive, human-crewed weapons (tanks, planes, ships) that have long defined the world’s “advanced” militaries have been rendered obsolete by inexpensive drones. But this view is incomplete, and perhaps dangerously misleading. Today’s drone warfare offers sobering lessons that go far beyond the vulnerability of expensive legacy weapons; and the looming integration of AI into drone warfare will make the current situation look positively quaint.

Consider the lessons of the Ukraine war so far. First, the impact of drones goes far beyond legacy weapons. Drones have indeed rendered tanks and armored personnel carriers extremely vulnerable, so Russian ground assaults now frequently use troops on foot, motorcycles, or all-terrain vehicles. But this hasn’t helped, because drones are terrifyingly effective against people as well. Casualties are as high as ever – but now, drones inflict over 70% of casualties on both sides.

Drones are also effective against almost everything else. Ukraine has used drones to destroy Russian targets as varied as weapons factories, moving trains, ammunition stores, oil refineries, ships, and ports. It could be worse; in fact, Ukraine has shown great restraint, considering Russia’s barbaric conduct. Airport terminals, train stations at rush hour, athletic and concert stadiums, pharmaceutical factories, hospitals, schools, nursing homes – all are equally vulnerable.

Two additional sobering lessons from Ukraine concern how drone warfare depends on its industrial base. First, speed and responsiveness are critical. Drone technology, weapons, and tactics now evolve at a blinding pace. A new drone will be useful for only 2-6 months. The other side develops countermeasures, requiring the development of new products, against which new countermeasures are developed, and so on.

At first, the drones used in Ukraine were crude weapons, radio-controlled by a pilot who needed to be nearby. As drones became more sophisticated and lethal, jamming was used to block their radio signals, which led to frequency changes and then frequency hopping, which was then countered by multi-frequency jammers, which then engendered drones that attack jamming equipment. Then Russia developed drones controlled via fiber-optic cable – impervious to jamming. Ukraine tries to track the cable to its source and kill the pilots (with drones). Now Ukraine has fiber-optic drones, too.

Guidance is ever more sophisticated, so that drones can evade radar by flying very low or using stealth technology. But drone detection and tracking systems have also advanced, employing networks of cellphones and microphones connected to audio analysis software, as well as using Lidar, radar, and cameras.

In this unforgiving environment, falling even a month behind can prove fatal. Traditional defense industry procedures are completely inadequate, and most US drones and drone manufacturers have demonstrated themselves to be frustratingly slow, costly, and ineffective. In contrast, Ukraine’s drone sector and military have pioneered a transformative model of weapons R&D, production, and deployment - built on direct, ongoing communication between frontline units and drone developers. Ukraine’s military command and Ministry of Digital Transformation even created a points-based system that publishes continuously updated rankings of units' performance, based on verified drone kills.

Ukraine’s advantage lies partly in its robust startup ecosystem, which powers a defense industry - comprised of hundreds of firms - capable of designing, producing, and deploying new weapons in just a few weeks. In 2025 alone, Ukraine is projected to produce over four million drones, most of them models that didn’t even exist the year before. Regrettably, Russia has also adjusted, increasingly leaning on its own network of private startups.

Ukraine’s drone warfare yields another vital lesson for the US and Europe: the pressing need to counter China’s growing dominance in the global drone industry.

Ukraine was compelled to develop its domestic drone sector in part because the US and NATO lacked one with sufficient speed and adaptability - and because China began restricting supplies to Ukraine while favoring Russia. Around 80% of the components used in Russian drones originate from China. While Ukraine was initially highly reliant on China, that dependence has now dropped to roughly 20%, mostly acquired covertly.

Nonetheless, American and European defense R&D and procurement remain sluggish and noncompetitive. This severely weakens their ability both to defend against drones and to effectively deploy them. Few recognize just how urgently the US and NATO now depend on Ukraine for drone warfare expertise. Today, Ukraine may be the only nation capable of keeping pace with Russian and Chinese drone innovation in a conflict scenario. Without Ukraine - and without urgent modernization - NATO and the US risk catastrophic casualties in any war with Russia or China, and might even face defeat.

AI, however, changes the equation entirely. Ukraine’s June 1 operation deployed 117 drones, each directed by a trained operator. Reports indicate that nearly half were neutralized by Russian defenses - chiefly jamming - due to the need for real-time radio links with controllers. Had the drones been autonomous, that number could have soared to a thousand. AI eliminates the need for human communication, rendering jamming ineffective while drastically boosting range and lethality. Within five years, preemptive strikes on major military assets may become terrifyingly effortless.

The same AI also enhances drone precision and lethality against individuals. Chinese teams have already showcased swarms navigating forests and regrouping afterward. This technology is not confined to warfare - it could be harnessed for terrorist operations as well.

That said, current AI functions still require far more computing power and memory than can be embedded in small drones. It’s also costly. Nvidia chips, for example, can fetch as much as $50,000 apiece - putting most advanced AI-enabled drones out of reach for now.

Yet that barrier is quickly falling. Driven by the push to equip smartphones with powerful AI capabilities, the same breakthroughs will soon extend to drone systems. And aside from high-end AI chips, China overwhelmingly controls the global supply chain for both smartphones and drone weapon components.

Stuart Russell, an AI researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, has advocated for an international arms-control treaty to limit the spread of small, AI-directed combat drones. He even funded Slaughterbots, a short film that vividly illustrates the nightmare these weapons could unleash if abused. Years ago over dinner, he predicted it would soon become trivial to target individuals using facial recognition - or to attack anyone wearing symbolic items like a cross, a yarmulke, or any visible religious or political sign.

But with meaningful treaties increasingly unlikely in the present geopolitical climate, the world must brace for the likely emergence of such weapons. And sadly, the Western defense complex is starting to resemble a “legacy” firm blindsided by technological upheaval. In commercial markets, failure to adapt may cost profits. In war, it costs lives.