Africa’s Solar Crash Confronts Rising Cost as China Reduces, as The Market Drops
- Wanjiru Waweru
- 10 minutes ago
- 3 min read
Wanjiru Waweru, Jadetimes Contributor
W. Waweru is a Jadetimes News Reporter Covering Africa & Environmental News
Nairobi, Kenya – China’s decision to complete value-added tax discussions on solar panel exports and to discontinue incentives for the production of battery storage equipment could raise the price of solar installations in Africa, which have been planned slowly due to imported Chinese technology.
The adjustment, which is most likely to take effect on April 1 for solar panels and starting next year for batteries, may embroil efforts to reveal renewable energy to near-vast electricity gaps around Africa. However, experts, including Wangari Muchiri, an energy analyst concentrating on Africa’s clean energy sector, explained that the influence would probably be flexible.
“We are likely to see solar panel prices increase in Africa because most of the inputs come from China,” said Muchiri. “Removing the rebate will add to existing costs, especially when you consider shipping, logistics, and other import fees.”
Africa paid considerably more for solar equipment than other areas due to transport costs, insignificant substance volumes, and tariffs.
China’s policy transformation reviews broader shifts after fierce competition among Chinese industrialists forced solar module prices to as low as $0.07 per watt in 2025 from $0.25 in 2022. That supported the drive for global adoption of solar energy; however, it left many industries with an enormous deprivation.
Some Chinese industries created VAT rebates in their export purchasing, functionally transferring that support to their overseas consumer. Therefore, Beijing has removed those charges due to limitations in overcapacity and moved to extend more technologies.
Rather than a shocking price, the overlooking of such allowance would most likely moderately increase, establishing a firmer international price floor. John Van Zuylen, CEO of the Africa Solar Industry Association, addressed the adaptation of solar.
“The changes are significant, but not catastrophic,” said Van Zuylen. “The entire recent solar boom was built on artificially cheap Chinese pricing. That era is now ending.”
“When a structural rebate is removed, exporters typically either absorb the cost, raise prices, or reduce discounting,” said Van Zuylen. “African countries will likely feel this as a gradual upward shift in pricing rather than a single dramatic spike.”
“Even with modest price increases, solar is expected to remain competitive across much of the continent since it’s the cheapest source of energy in Africa,” said Muchiri. “Even with higher panel prices, it will still be significantly cheaper than alternatives like diesel.”
Sonia Dunlop, CEO of the Global Solar Council, an industry association, made a statement.
“It will increase project costs slightly and might delay the project construction pipeline due to supply chain shortages and contractual changes, stockpiling rush, congestion in shipment for the countries heavily reliant on Chinese imports,” said Dunlop.
Battery storage, critical for providing electricity after sunset, may face a bigger challenge as incentives are phased out through 2027. Higher costs may affect smaller users the most,” said Van Zuylen. Batteries matter more than panels for Africa because storage is what makes solar reliable for off-grid and backup users.”
Basil Abia, co-founder of the Nigerian energy research firm Truva Intelligence, explained that the prices of battery storage have consistently increased throughout history in Africa. His perspective is that the team should find more solutions to combine solar with battery storage.
“Batteries have historically been expensive, and many solar installations in Africa were built without them,” said Abia. “Only recently have we started seeing more systems combining solar with battery storage.”
Abia reported that, without the concession, solar modules remain inexpensive. Between 2024 and 2025, module prices decreased from approximately $0.25 per watt in the early years to $0.07 per watt.
Requesting solar, which recently supplies 3% of power generation in Africa, is predicted to continue nourishing storage adjustment. In the meantime, the heavy reliance on Chinese machinery is drawing attention to the restriction of local manufacturing space.
“The VAT removal will slow, but not reverse Africa’s clean energy transition,” said Abia. “Countries that use this moment to accelerate local manufacturing will emerge stronger. Those that do not will remain exposed to Beijing’s next industrial policy adjustment.”
Wanjiru Waweru is a Jadetimes Contributor. You can email Wanjiru at sellmypaperwork@gmail.com.
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