U.S. Soybean Deal Timeline Shifts as Growing Season Becomes New Benchmark

Hadisur Rahman, JadeTimes Staff

H. Rahman is a Jadetimes news reporter covering Business

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Image Source: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images

In a development that could affect farmers and commodity markets, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that China’s commitment to purchase American soybeans has been extended from the end of this year to the end of the growing season. The clarification emerged during Greer’s testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, where Senator Deb Fischer pressed for details on how Washington is monitoring Beijing’s soybean purchases amid ongoing trade negotiations.

Greer acknowledged a discrepancy between the timeline he previously outlined and a White House statement issued on November 1. The White House fact sheet, issued after a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump, stated that China would buy at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025, with plans to purchase at least 25 million metric tons in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. The discrepancy has raised questions among farmers and industry stakeholders about the precise delivery window and the overall schedule for these purchases.

The conversation comes as farmers confront a year of volatility in agriculture policy and trade dynamics. Earlier this month, President Trump announced a $12 billion aid package for farmers, including $11 billion in direct payments, while the Agriculture Department reported new soybean bookings for delivery to China. This backdrop underscores the sensitivity of agricultural markets to policy signals and the ongoing negotiations with Beijing regarding market access and guarantee levels for U.S. producers.

Industry observers note that China’s purchases since October have begun to resume after a period of reduced activity during the height of the trade tensions. NBC News data indicate that China has purchased around 2.85 million metric tons since October, signaling a renewed demand pattern in a market that has experienced significant price and supply fluctuations over the past several years.

Treasury Department officials have also referred to the so-called growing season as the working deadline for China’s soybean purchases, suggesting a shift toward aligning procurement milestones with agricultural planting and harvest cycles. Some policymakers and market participants expect that February could bring clarifications on the final timing, as private exporters report further bookings and cargo commitments.

As the government weighs policy communications and market signals, farmers and traders will be watching closely for any updates that could influence planting decisions, crop protection investments, and the broader trajectory of U.S. agricultural exports in the coming years.