A Spider’s Web of Escalation: Drone Attacks on Russian Airbases May Have Unpredictable Reactions
- Chethana Janith
- 1 day ago
- 7 min read
Chethana Janith, Jadetimes Staff
C. Janith is a Jadetimes news reporter and sub-editor covering science and geopolitics.
On the eve of peace talks in Istanbul, Ukraine launched a massive drone strike on multiple Russian airbases and carried out deadly sabotage on civilian trains, sparking fears of escalation and western complicity.
On Sunday, June 1st, the day before the second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Ukraine launched “Operation Spiders Web”, involving drone attacks on five Russian airbases, Olenya in the Murmansk oblast on the Kola peninsula, Belaya in the Irkutsk region in Siberia, Ivanovo north-west of Moscow, and Dyagilevo in Ryazan, and Ukrainka, in the Amur oblast in the Russian far east.
Of particular significance was the fact that three of these bases are home to regiments of Russian Strategic Aviation, that is, for the layman, nuclear bombers such as the revered Tu-95 Bear and Tu-22M, while Ivanovo is home to the Russian A-50 Airborne Warning and Command System (AWACS) aircraft.
Immediate celebration erupted in Ukraine, as well as gushing reports in western media, “claiming” that this attack was “Russia’s Pearl Harbor”, and that “41 Russian bombers were attacked and destroyed”, the moniker of “Russia’s Pearl Harbor” is a particularly notable example of the short-sightedness of western leaders and media pundits, as the Pearl Harbor attack ultimately resulted in the unconditional surrender of Japan, plus the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It also seems that western ‘thinkers’ are drawing completely the wrong conclusions regarding the supposed lack of Russian response, with insane articles like this from The Hill.
Somewhat obscured by the media hype over the drone attacks on strategic aviation targets, was the sinister terrorist attacks by Ukraine on Russian passenger trains in the Kursk and Bryansk oblasts, which were both carried out by the placement of demolition charges placed on road overpasses which were detonated remotely when the trains were about to pass underneath in a sickening attempt to cause mass civilian casualties.
Heroic Efforts
Only the heroic efforts of the train drivers stopped the casualties being worse than they were, and that was bad enough, with the Bryansk terror attack resulting in 7 dead, including the train driver who stayed at his post trying to halt the train, and 120 wounded, including a number of children. In Kursk, the train driver and two of the other crew were injured.
The technical aspects of the attacks are interesting to review. In the case of the drone attacks on airbases, it appears that this operation has been planned for 18 months, at least that is what the Ukrainians claim. It appears that teams were inserted into Chebalynsk in Russia, where a warehouse was rented (the owners have already been detained for questioning) and there the drones were assembled and the trucks, locally registered, were modified with specially built containers with opening roofs.
Once the signal to proceed with the operation, trucks drove from Chebalynsk and were positioned near the target bases, waiting for the signal to launch a final coordinated attack. Despite the wild claims and euphoria from Ukraine, all did not go according to plan, with defences at two of the bases stopping most Ukrainian drones, while civilians at the truck stop in Irkutsk where a Ukrainian drone carrying truck was placed to attack Belaya airbase stormed the truck and stopped most of the drones with whatever was at hand, at great risk to themselves.
The most successful attacks were those on Belaya in the Irkutsk oblast, and Olenya in the Murmansk oblast, from where the Ukrainians posted film of several aircraft being attacked. Subsequent satellite imagery shows several damaged or destroyed aircraft at both airfields, with three destroyed Tu-95MS and four destroyed Tu-22M3 bombers at Olenya, and 3 Tu-95MS bombers and two An-12 transports at Belaya. So far, there is no evidence of destroyed aircraft from Ivanovo, Dyagilevo, or Ukrainka, so a total of 12 destroyed aircraft, ten of them bombers, far less than the 41 claimed by Ukraine and western media.
Treaty Obligations
Of particular note was the crowing of media pundits that the Russians had “still not taken” precautions to cover or protect their strategic bombers, this is supposedly pointing to “Russian incompetence”. In reality, the Russians, like their US counterparts, are still bound by the soon to expire START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) which obligates both Russia and the US to park nuclear capable bombers in the open, so they can be clearly monitored and counted as part of the treaty requirements. Needless to say, the Ukrainian attack is unlikely to be conducive to further cooperation.
The other, even more disturbing, part of the attack on Russian airbases, was that, despite Ukrainian claims of “using AI drones”, the attacks appear to have been made using FPV drones coordinated by satellites.
Ukraine does not have any satellites, but their western allies, the US, UK, and France, do have satellites capable of communicating with and coordinating these types of drones. It is highly unlikely that any such attack could have been carried out without, at least, the heavy involvement of western intelligence agencies and militaries, and, given the fact that Ukraine claims that the operation was in preparation for 18 months, the go-ahead of Biden, US President at that time.
Trump claims to have known nothing about this attack plan, and stated so in a direct call with Putin on the 5th of June, which raises the question, who knew what, and when. It is quite likely that the CIA at least, whose rank and file are firm enemies of Trump’s MAGA movement, and firm Democrat party loyalists, despite “new leadership”, concealed this matter from Trump, and possibly from other members of the administration, again raising questions as to who is actually in control.
Terrifying Prospect
Whatever the involvement of officials, and at what level, it is obvious that, at least, the US and UK were involved. A terrifying prospect indeed.
The attacks on the passenger trains in both Kursk and Bryansk also appear to have been remotely controlled, with use of western satellites, and western (American) supplied C-4 plastic explosives.
It is obvious to any rational observer that these attacks were intended to provoke an overwhelming response from Russia, which would enable the Ukrainians and their EU and US Deep State backers to cry that Russia “does not want peace”. Luckily for the world, and unfortunately for the globalists, Vladimir Putin is rather too experienced and principled to fall for such provocations, as has been repeatedly shown by his measured and principled response to previous provocations.
This belief is further reinforced by the attack carried out on the Kerch Bridge on Tuesday 3rd June, where an underwater suicide drone made a spectacular, though unsuccessful, attempt to destroy the bridge. It must be noted that the bridge itself has not been used for military purposes for some time, but is exclusively used by civilian traffic to and from Ukraine to the Russian mainland. Although the Ukrainians claim the bridge was “severely damaged” it is apparent that the bridge is open and carrying its normal load of traffic.
There is evidence, after these attacks, that even the Russian president’s legendary patience is wearing thin. On Wednesday, June 4th, Putin said that the attacks on the trains and bridge were terroristic in nature, and aimed squarely at the civilian population. Meanwhile. Dmitry Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel:
To all who are worried and waiting for retribution.
You need to worry – this is a normal person’s quality. Retribution is inevitable.
At the same time, you should remember:
Our Army is actively advancing and will continue to advance. Everything that should explode will certainly explode, and those who should be exterminated will disappear;
The negotiations in Istanbul are not needed for a compromise peace on unrealistic conditions invented by someone, but for our speedy victory and the complete destruction of the neo-Nazi government. This is the meaning of the Russian Memorandum, which was published yesterday.
The real question is, what happens next? Russia has refused to take the NATO poisoned bait, instead reacting calmly, and continuing to squeeze Ukraine like a lemon. How long will this restraint last, however?
Deliberate and Orchestrated
I believe that this attack on part of Russia’s nuclear trident was deliberate, and orchestrated by the west, whether that is by political actors, the military, or deep state intelligence services is open to debate. It is highly likely that the idea is to make Russia retaliate in a far more escalatory way than they have to previous provocations, including potential strikes on NATO members that could be used to trigger article 5 and allow a western entry into the war and strikes on, or invasion of, Russia.
The reason I think this may be the case is that it has been openly acknowledged that Ukraine used satellites to guide the drones using FPV, not artificial intelligence as was proposed by some. This in itself is a direct involvement in the war, as only a handful of NATO countries have satellites capable of such activity, particularly the US, France, and the UK - the usual suspects.
What is certain, however, is that if it is a case of “rogue intelligence services”, then western politicians need to get their intelligence agencies and militaries under control, and they need to do it quickly, before the spider’s web of escalatory actions and provocations pushes Russia to a point where it must retaliate in kind, though I strongly suspect that the UK, and the former Biden US administration are behind this, and usual war hawks we know only too well.
In Russia, the question must be “to launch, or not to launch”, and remember, after Pearl Harbor came the final result in the form of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but that was an afterthought, as the war had already been won!
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